The global airline demand scenario is presently significantly disrupted as a consequence of the Covid-19 health pandemic. Many airlines are storing aircraft but the daily dynamic of this change is increasingly challenging to research as many aircraft can be stored for short periods or indefinitely. Cirium are reacting as quickly as possible to these events and we are reassigning resource where appropriate to react to the situation, which should mitigate much of any impact.
Our standard approach to ‘storing’ aircraft is to do so after 2 weeks continuous inactivity and this is reflected in our messaging on product already. We will continue to use this benchmark as every airline will manage their fleets differently, some spreading utilisation across fleets and some using just a selection of aircraft. This means our data will remain fluid and some aircraft may be shown as stored before returning to service within 2 weeks, at which point we will remove the stored status period entirely. Meantime, many airlines are announcing their stored fleet quantities, but there may be some lag in our empirical data when compared to these comments. However, given that our stored data is derived from our flight tracking data, which reflects actual flights flown on a daily and near real-time basis, we are confident that our stored fleet detail reflects the actual situation as closely as possible, albeit with some short lag around parking and returning aircraft to operation.
Due to recent news and market feedback, we are again revising our 737 MAX delivery backlog based on the following new logic:
We believe that production may restart in May 2020, but starting at a low rate and reaching a rate of 42 per month by end of year.
We believe that deliveries may restart in July 2020 and potentially reach 70 per month by end of the year. We estimate there will be 330 deliveries this year – of which at least 154 will be from the fleet currently in storage.
2021 – we now estimate 745 deliveries in this year and all the stored aircraft will be cleared by November 2021.
2022 – we now estimate 604 deliveries in this year and for Boeing to reach a production rate of 52 per month late in the year.
2023 – we now estimate 674 deliveries in this year and for Boeing to reach a production rate of 57 per month.
We’re pleased to announce that our military data research team have been busy over the Christmas period and have now populated histories for the Sukhoi Su-27. Data added includes, build year, registration, and serial number.
Image below shows the delivery dates for various Su-27 types as displayed in Fleets Analyzer. Continue reading “”
The changes described in the previous Knowledge Base article regarding the upcoming changes to our age calculation have been put on hold. Once we have a new release date for these changes the information will be posted on the Knowledge Base, and on the Fleets Analyzer homepage.
Aircraft accident information was included as part of the new PDF aircraft profiles released earlier this week, and today’s release will bring the same data to our web based aircraft profiles. Rather than being a single line event within the existing aircraft history table, accident data resides within its own dedicated table, located directly below the history table on the ‘A/C History’ tab. Continue reading “”
We’re pleased to announce the release of a new version of our aircraft profiles. This new version, available in PDF format, has been designed specifically for download\print. For each Commercial aircraft (other market groups to follow) you will now be able to download a version of the profiles not just from the aircraft profile pages themselves, but also directly from the search result pages. Continue reading “”
In this release we are very pleased to announce an update to the Quick Profile Search. The old version of this search allowed you to search for an aircraft via MSN or registration (old, current and future). We had a lot of feedback from users stating that after entering an MSN or registration they still had to scroll through multiple results to find the specific aircraft they were searching for. In this update you can now append your MSN/Reg search with the manufacturer or type in order to further filter your results. This will typically return only a single aircraft. View the animations below to see the new feature in action. Continue reading “”
Due to the recent change to the definiton of Build Date, we are changing our definition of age.
Age is calculated as the duration since the date of the aircraft’s first flight, if we have no recorded first flight, then we use the delivery date.
Age will be calculated as the duration since the Build Date. Build Date is taken as the delivery date, unless the aircraft’s first flight was more than 12 months prior to delivery date, in this scenario Build Date is taken as the first flight date.
These changes will take effect from 20th January 2020.