As the Covid-19 Pandemic continues to impact the Aviation industry and in particular commercial passenger services we are making some further adjustments to how we track the ongoing usage of aircraft. Continue reading “”
As of June 1st 2020 Cirium will be making a further adjustment to best reflect the current in service and stored fleets. However, we will not be retrospectively applying the new storage and in service classifications to data prior to June 1st 2020.
Aircraft will now be reflected as entering storage if any of the following criteria are met: Continue reading “”
The world of business aviation has always had a degree of secrecy about certain elements of it, and nowhere is that more obvious than in order data.
Order dates for business aviation shown in Fleets Analyser tend to come in two different types. There are known orders – which are a minority – where a major operator has made a multi aircraft order that the OEM in question is happy to publicise, and then there are the unknown orders which tend to be small and single aircraft orders where non-disclosure agreements are commonplace.
Based on customer feedback, we have introduced a new type of ‘usage’ to our database. The new usage is ‘Spares Use / Parts Reclamation’.
This usage will be applied to aircraft when those aircraft have been acquired by a company/military air arm purely for spares use (sometimes referred to as “non-fliers” or “donor” airframes).
This new usage will always be applied to aircraft that are in storage, and would typically be followed by a retirement event.
This new usage will initially only be applied on our business aviation, helicopter and military datasets, as well as military operated examples of types in our commercial dataset.
As we have been getting plenty of interest in our storage data, we thought it would be useful to provide an update on how we are processing this data in line with the latest trends and patterns we are seeing from our tracking data. Continue reading “”
The recent Covid-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic has caused significant numbers of the world’s aircraft to be moved from ‘In Service’ to ‘Storage’. Our fleet research team are busy monitoring the situation and making status changes to individual aircraft with the help of evidence from flight tracking data. Information can be found here which describes the methodology. To see daily updates, please visit here. Continue reading “”
The global airline demand scenario is presently significantly disrupted as a consequence of the COVID-19 health pandemic. Many airlines are storing aircraft but the daily dynamic of this change is increasingly challenging to research as many aircraft can be stored for short periods or indefinitely. Cirium are reacting as quickly as possible to these events and we are reassigning resource where appropriate to react to the situation, which should mitigate much of any impact.
In addition to our previous updates, Cirium will be adding a provisional future return to service date of 30/09/2020 to aircraft which we believe to be temporarily parked due to the COVID-19 health pandemic and where the airline has not indicated any return to service date. The coming few months remain unclear and we will continue to monitor the pandemic and these dates in the coming days and weeks and will adjust as more details become available. Airlines that provide different return to service dates for specific aircraft, or fleets will have those reflected and as aircraft are returned to service, each aircraft will be treated on an individual basis.
The global airline demand scenario is presently significantly disrupted as a consequence of the Covid-19 health pandemic. Many airlines are storing aircraft but the daily dynamic of this change is increasingly challenging to research as many aircraft can be stored for short periods or indefinitely. Cirium are reacting as quickly as possible to these events and we are reassigning resource where appropriate to react to the situation, which should mitigate much of any impact.
Our standard approach to ‘storing’ aircraft is to do so after 2 weeks continuous inactivity and this is reflected in our messaging on product already. We will continue to use this benchmark as every airline will manage their fleets differently, some spreading utilisation across fleets and some using just a selection of aircraft. This means our data will remain fluid and some aircraft may be shown as stored before returning to service within 2 weeks, at which point we will remove the stored status period entirely. Meantime, many airlines are announcing their stored fleet quantities, but there may be some lag in our empirical data when compared to these comments. However, given that our stored data is derived from our flight tracking data, which reflects actual flights flown on a daily and near real-time basis, we are confident that our stored fleet detail reflects the actual situation as closely as possible, albeit with some short lag around parking and returning aircraft to operation.
We are pleased to announce that we have recently added Build Location to Fleets Analyzer. Build location represents the final assembly location and is assigned to individual aircraft.
In total, we have added build location to over 173,000 aircraft across all market groups. For the commercial fleet, we have build location for 88% of delivered aircraft. Continue reading “”
Due to recent news and market feedback, we are again revising our 737 MAX delivery backlog based on the following new logic:
- We believe that production may restart in May 2020, but starting at a low rate and reaching a rate of 42 per month by end of year.
- We believe that deliveries may restart in July 2020 and potentially reach 70 per month by end of the year. We estimate there will be 330 deliveries this year – of which at least 154 will be from the fleet currently in storage.
- 2021 – we now estimate 745 deliveries in this year and all the stored aircraft will be cleared by November 2021.
- 2022 – we now estimate 604 deliveries in this year and for Boeing to reach a production rate of 52 per month late in the year.
- 2023 – we now estimate 674 deliveries in this year and for Boeing to reach a production rate of 57 per month.