Knowledge Base

The global airline demand scenario is presently significantly disrupted as a consequence of the COVID-19 health pandemic. Many airlines are storing aircraft but the daily dynamic of this change is increasingly challenging to research as many aircraft can be stored for short periods or indefinitely. Cirium are reacting as quickly as possible to these events and we are reassigning resource where appropriate to react to the situation, which should mitigate much of any impact.

In addition to our previous updates, Cirium will be adding a provisional future return to service date of 30/09/2020 to aircraft which we believe to be temporarily parked due to the COVID-19 health pandemic and where the airline has not indicated any return to service date. The coming few months remain unclear and we will continue to monitor the pandemic and these dates in the coming days and weeks and will adjust as more details become available. Airlines that provide different return to service dates for specific aircraft, or fleets will have those reflected and as aircraft are returned to service, each aircraft will be treated on an individual basis.

The global airline demand scenario is presently significantly disrupted as a consequence of the Covid-19 health pandemic. Many airlines are storing aircraft but the daily dynamic of this change is increasingly challenging to research as many aircraft can be stored for short periods or indefinitely. Cirium are reacting as quickly as possible to these events and we are reassigning resource where appropriate to react to the situation, which should mitigate much of any impact.

Our standard approach to ‘storing’ aircraft is to do so after 2 weeks continuous inactivity and this is reflected in our messaging on product already. We will continue to use this benchmark as every airline will manage their fleets differently, some spreading utilisation across fleets and some using just a selection of aircraft. This means our data will remain fluid and some aircraft may be shown as stored before returning to service within 2 weeks, at which point we will remove the stored status period entirely. Meantime, many airlines are announcing their stored fleet quantities, but there may be some lag in our empirical data when compared to these comments. However, given that our stored data is derived from our flight tracking data, which reflects actual flights flown on a daily and near real-time basis, we are confident that our stored fleet detail reflects the actual situation as closely as possible, albeit with some short lag around parking and returning aircraft to operation.

Due to recent news and market feedback, we are again revising our 737 MAX delivery backlog based on the following new logic:

• We believe that production may restart in May 2020, but starting at a low rate and reaching a rate of 42 per month by end of year.
• We believe that deliveries may restart in July 2020 and potentially reach 70 per month by end of the year. We estimate there will be 330 deliveries this year – of which at least 154 will be from the fleet currently in storage.
• 2021 – we now estimate 745 deliveries in this year and all the stored aircraft will be cleared by November 2021.
• 2022 – we now estimate 604 deliveries in this year and for Boeing to reach a production rate of 52 per month late in the year.
• 2023 – we now estimate 674 deliveries in this year and for Boeing to reach a production rate of 57 per month.

We’re pleased to announce that our military data research team have been busy over the Christmas period and have now populated histories for the Sukhoi Su-27.  Data added includes, build year, registration, and serial number.

Image below shows the delivery dates for various Su-27 types as displayed in Fleets Analyzer. Continue reading “”

The changes described in the previous Knowledge Base article regarding the upcoming changes to our age calculation have been put on hold. Once we have a new release date for these changes the information will be posted on the Knowledge Base, and on the Fleets Analyzer homepage.